Cuiaba 1–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cuiaba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

Eric Melo 64'

Luizao 78' (pen)

4/23/2026

Serie B · Round 6Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cuiaba49%

×Draw26%

Botafogo SP24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Cuiaba

1.50

Botafogo SP

0.97

Cuiaba creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

0.84

1.10

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.73

Botafogo SP

0.84

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.10

Botafogo SP

1.27

-1.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Cuiaba-1.16scores less

Botafogo SP-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

76%

Cuiaba or Botafogo SP

74%

Draw or Botafogo SP

51%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

25%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

78%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

44%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

19%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

62%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

25%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

67%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.73 + Botafogo SP defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Botafogo SP attack 0.84 + Cuiaba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cuiaba scores more

49%

level

26%

Botafogo SP scores more

24%

Cuiaba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Eric Melo

Cuiaba · D

7.6

Match Events

25'

Wallace

40'

Luis Soares← Vitor Mendes

45+4'

Rodrigo

46'

Eliel← Rodrigo Rodrigues

47'

Eric

63'

Weverson← David Miguel

63'

Vinicius Peixoto← Pepe

63'

Leandro Maciel← Matheus Sales

63'

Kelvin← Jefferson Nem

64'

Eric Melo↳ Hernades

75'

Marco Antonio BatistussiPenalty confirmed

77'

Weverson

78'

LuizaoPenalty

82'

Gabriel Inocencio← Pedro Henrique

82'

Thiago Moraes← Marco Antonio

84'

Kauan Cristtyan← Hernades

85'

Raul

89'

Marcio Maranhao← Ze Hugo

90+3'

Thiago Moraes

90'

Leandro Maciel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaBotafogo

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots10

0.78Expected Goals (xG)1.23

6Corners4

20Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots10

5On Target3

7Off Target3

5Blocked4

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

355Total Passes267

265Accurate Passes172

75%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

20Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Serie B: Cuiaba 1–1 Botafogo SP

Cuiaba and Botafogo SP drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 23, 2026.

Goals: Eric Melo (64'), Luizao (78' pen).

Cuiaba controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá.

Cuiaba vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cuiaba 1–1 Botafogo SP