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Cuiaba vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2025

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
Elton 90+3', 74'
12/6/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 26Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cuiaba50%
×Draw26%
Botafogo SP23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.48
Botafogo SP
0.91

Cuiaba creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
1.73
Botafogo SP
0.72

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.10
Botafogo SP
1.22

finishing

Cuiaba-1.16scores less
Botafogo SP-0.39scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
77%
Cuiaba or Botafogo SP
74%
Draw or Botafogo SP
50%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
25%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
77%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
43%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
19%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
60%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
23%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
68%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.73 + Botafogo SP defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Botafogo SP attack 0.72 + Cuiaba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cuiaba scores more
50%
level
26%
Botafogo SP scores more
23%

Cuiaba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
EltonCuiabaCuiaba · F
8.5

Match Events

56'
Gilson← Jonata Felipe
56'
Cássio Ortega← Matheus Anjos
62'
Yago César← Marcinho
62'
Lucas Ramon← Jean Patrick
69'
Edson Junior← Elicarlos
72'
Elton← Felipe Marques
74'
Elton
75'
Wesley← Ronald
75'
Michel Douglas← Wellington
84'
Felipe Ferreira← Maxwell
90'
M. Nogueira
90+3'
Elton↳ Yago César

Possession

52%Cuiaba

Shots

12Cuiaba

Pass accuracy

50%Cuiaba

Statistics

CuiabaBotafogo
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots18
3Corners3
17Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots18
5On Target1
4Off Target9
3Blocked8
4Inside Box8
8Outside Box10
Passing
52%Possession48%
466Total Passes418
384Accurate Passes341
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls18
6Offsides0

Match Recap: Cuiaba vs Botafogo SP

Cuiaba beat Botafogo SP 2-0 in Serie B on December 6, 2020.

Goals: Elton (74', 90+3').

Cuiaba controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.