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Cuiaba vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2025

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
R. Carrillo 75'
7/1/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 14Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cuiaba50%
×Draw26%
Botafogo SP23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.48
Botafogo SP
0.91

Cuiaba creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
1.73
Botafogo SP
0.72

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.10
Botafogo SP
1.22

finishing

Cuiaba-1.16scores less
Botafogo SP-0.39scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Botafogo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
77%
Cuiaba or Botafogo SP
74%
Draw or Botafogo SP
50%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
25%
Botafogo SP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
77%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
43%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
19%
Botafogo SP 1+ goals
60%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
23%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
68%
Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.73 + Botafogo SP defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Botafogo SP attack 0.72 + Cuiaba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cuiaba scores more
50%
level
26%
Botafogo SP scores more
23%

Cuiaba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
Alisson SafiraCuiabaCuiaba · F
8.2

Match Events

-5'
Gabriel Risso Patrón
52'
Alan Empereur
62'
Marquinho← S. Abdulai
62'
Jefferson Nem← Robinho
69'
Juan Christian← Calebe Costa
70'
Jean Victor← G. Risso
70'
R. Carrillo← Alexandre Jesus
74'
Ronie CarrilloGoal confirmed
75'
R. Carrillo
76'
Marcelo Henrique
79'
Ruan Oliveira← Max Alves
79'
Gabriel Mineiro← Derik Lacerda
82'
Rafael Milhorim← Jonathan Cafu
89'
David Miguel← Lucas Mineiro
90+7'
Jeferson

Possession

66%Cuiaba

Shots

16Cuiaba

Pass accuracy

53%Cuiaba

Statistics

CuiabaBotafogo
Overview
66%Possession34%
16Total Shots12
1.67Expected Goals (xG)1.71
5Corners3
12Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots12
3On Target3
9Off Target7
4Blocked2
9Inside Box5
7Outside Box7
Passing
66%Possession34%
542Total Passes287
478Accurate Passes221
88%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Serie B: Cuiaba 0–1 Botafogo SP

Botafogo SP beat Cuiaba 1-0 in Serie B on July 1, 2025.

Goals: R. Carrillo (75').

Cuiaba controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá.