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Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
Preview
23:30
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
7/23/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 19Arena Pantanal
Big match
41%
Cuiaba
model favours
41%25%34%

83% of Atletico Goianiense’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cuiaba41%
×Draw25%
Atletico Goianiense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.48
Atletico Goianiense
1.33

Cuiaba creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
1.73
Atletico Goianiense
1.55

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.10
Atletico Goianiense
1.24

finishing

Cuiaba-1.16scores less
Atletico Goianiense-0.55scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
66%
Cuiaba or Atletico Goianiense
75%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
59%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
77%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
43%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
55%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.73 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.55 + Cuiaba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cuiaba scores more
41%
level
25%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
34%

Cuiaba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Goianiense score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in 78% of Cuiaba’s matches
  • Cuiaba score first in only 33% of matches
  • Atletico Goianiense fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Cuiaba fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cuiaba
Defensively solid
Atletico Goianiense
Balanced
53%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy80%
14.3Shots13.2
1.35xGBiggest gap1.56
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CuiabaAtletico Goianiense

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Cuiaba
8
Draws
1
Atletico Goianiense
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 60%
0–12–21–10–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cuiaba
LDWDL
Goianiense
WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense — Match Preview

Cuiaba face Atletico Goianiense on July 23, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cuiaba host Atletico Goianiense at Arena Pantanal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.