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Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie A 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
6/22/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 11Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cuiaba43%
×Draw29%
Atletico Goianiense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.23
Atletico Goianiense
0.94

Cuiaba creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
0.97
Atletico Goianiense
0.82

allows per match

Cuiaba
1.05
Atletico Goianiense
1.50

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par
Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Atletico Goianiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
72%
Cuiaba or Atletico Goianiense
71%
Draw or Atletico Goianiense
57%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
71%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
35%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
24%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
60%
Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 0.97 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.82 + Cuiaba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cuiaba scores more
43%
level
29%
Atletico Goianiense scores more
28%

Cuiaba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cuiaba 0–0 Atletico Goianiense

Cuiaba and Atletico Goianiense drew 0-0 in Serie A on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.