Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Cuiaba: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuiaba

4/7/2026

Copa Centro-Oeste · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Goianiense67%

×Draw25%

Cuiaba8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.34

Atletico Goianiense

1.50

Cuiaba

0.34

Atletico Goianiense creates 341% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.00

Cuiaba

0.00

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.67

Cuiaba

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

92%

Atletico Goianiense or Cuiaba

75%

Draw or Cuiaba

33%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

36%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

19%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

29%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

5%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

89%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.00 + Cuiaba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cuiaba attack 0.00 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

67%

level

25%

Cuiaba scores more

8%

Atletico Goianiense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff