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Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
4/22/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 4Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Goianiense44%
×Draw29%
Cuiaba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.27
Cuiaba
0.94

Atletico Goianiense creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.58
Cuiaba
0.81

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.07
Cuiaba
0.95

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.41scores less
Cuiaba-0.01on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
73%
Atletico Goianiense or Cuiaba
71%
Draw or Cuiaba
56%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
20%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
14%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
61%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
24%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
62%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.95 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.58 + Cuiaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cuiaba attack 0.81 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
44%
level
29%
Cuiaba scores more
27%

Atletico Goianiense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Cuiaba

Atletico Goianiense and Cuiaba drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Serra Dourada in Goiânia, Goiás.