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CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
5/22/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29VEB Arena
Big match
60%
CSKA Moscow
model favours
60%24%16%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CSKA Moscow60%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Makhachkala16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.65
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.71

CSKA Moscow creates 132% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.87
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.52

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.90
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.42

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
84%
CSKA Moscow or Dinamo Makhachkala
76%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
40%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
49%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
51%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
16%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
79%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
60%
level
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
16%

CSKA Moscow at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CSKA Moscow have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
CSKA Moscow
Balanced
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
53%Possession44%
82%Pass accuracy68%
14.1Shots10.6
1.31xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CSKA MoscowDinamo Makhachkala

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

5
CSKA Moscow
0
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 33%
3–12–11–00–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Moscow
LLDD
Makhachkala
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA Moscow face Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)

Premier League returns with CSKA Moscow hosting Dinamo Makhachkala. Match starts May 22, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CSKA Moscow host Dinamo Makhachkala at VEB Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.