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CSA vs Cruzeiro — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
Lucas Barcelos 48'
L. Henrique 14'
7/20/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 19Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

CSA42%
×Draw29%
Cruzeiro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.19
Cruzeiro
0.94

CSA creates 27% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 52 away

creates per match

CSA
1.43
Cruzeiro
1.04

allows per match

CSA
0.84
Cruzeiro
0.96

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CSA or draw
71%
CSA or Cruzeiro
71%
Draw or Cruzeiro
58%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
18%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
70%
CSA 2+ goals
33%
CSA 3+ goals
12%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
61%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
24%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
59%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Cruzeiro defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cruzeiro attack 1.04 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CSA scores more
42%
level
29%
Cruzeiro scores more
29%

CSA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90
L. HenriqueCruzeiroCruzeiro · F
8.0

Match Events

14'
L. Henrique↳ Breno Teixeira
21'
Luis Felipe
28'
Giva
35'
Rafael Cabral
44'
Edson Lucas
46'
Lourenço← Rodrigo Rodrigues
48'
Lucas Barcelos↳ Gabriel
61'
Igor← Giva
65'
Oliveira← Luis Felipe
66'
Pedro Castro← Adriano
67'
Lucas Barcellos
68'
J. Mercado← Osvaldo
75'
Bruno Mezenga← Lucas Barcelos
78'
Edu← L. Henrique
78'
L. Pais← Daniel
87'
Rodolfo← Matheus Bidu
90+1'
Gabriel

Possession

44%CSA

Shots

22CSA

Pass accuracy

48%CSA

Statistics

CSACruzeiro
Overview
44%Possession56%
22Total Shots18
6Corners9
17Fouls8
Shots
22Total Shots18
5On Target5
11Off Target7
6Blocked6
9Inside Box9
13Outside Box9
Passing
44%Possession56%
305Total Passes403
233Accurate Passes335
76%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls8
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Serie B: CSA 1–1 Cruzeiro

CSA and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 20, 2022.

Goals: L. Henrique (14'), Lucas Barcelos (48').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.