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Cruzeiro vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CSA
CSA
L. Henrique 90+1'
Rômulo 89'
Geovane 40'
Lucas Barcelos 81'
Lourenço 22'
11/6/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 38Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Cruzeiro44%
×Draw29%
CSA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.23
CSA
0.88

Cruzeiro creates 40% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 67 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.35
CSA
0.88

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.87
CSA
1.10

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par
CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

CSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
74%
Cruzeiro or CSA
71%
Draw or CSA
56%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
20%
CSA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
71%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
35%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
13%
CSA 1+ goals
59%
CSA 2+ goals
22%
CSA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
63%
CSA (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.35 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSA attack 0.88 + Cruzeiro defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
44%
level
29%
CSA scores more
26%

Cruzeiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
GabrielCSACSA · M
7.5

Match Events

22'
Lourenço↳ Yann Rolim
40'
Geovane↳ Machado
46'
Jajá← Marquinhos Cipriano
49'
Lucas Oliveira
65'
Willian Oliveira← Pedro Castro
65'
Lucas Barcelos← Osvaldo
66'
Lucas Lourenço← Lourenço
69'
Yann Rollim
72'
Geovane
74'
L. Henrique← Bruno Rodrigues
74'
L. Pais← Geovane
76'
Lucas Marques← Éverton Silva
81'
Lucas Barcelos↳ Gabriel
82'
Rômulo← Machado
84'
Gabriel Tonini← Yann Rolim
85'
Ferreira← Gabriel
87'
Diego Renan
89'
Geovane
89'
Rômulo↳ Edu
90+2'
Luvannor Henrique
90'
Rômulo
90+1'
L. Henrique↳ L. Pais

Possession

65%Cruzeiro

Shots

24Cruzeiro

Pass accuracy

55%Cruzeiro

Statistics

CruzeiroCSA
Overview
65%Possession35%
24Total Shots16
9Corners3
12Fouls18
Shots
24Total Shots16
9On Target4
11Off Target7
4Blocked5
11Inside Box8
13Outside Box8
Passing
65%Possession35%
456Total Passes245
376Accurate Passes164
82%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls18
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Cruzeiro vs CSA

Cruzeiro beat CSA 3-2 in Serie B on November 6, 2022.

Goals: Lourenço (22'), Geovane (40'), Lucas Barcelos (81'), Rômulo (89'), L. Henrique (90+1').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (65%) and registered 24 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.