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Cruzeiro vs CSA — Serie B 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CSA
CSA
Claudinho 41'
Iury 64'
Yuri 50'
9/26/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 26Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Cruzeiro44%
×Draw29%
CSA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.23
CSA
0.88

Cruzeiro creates 40% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 67 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.35
CSA
0.88

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.87
CSA
1.10

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par
CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

CSA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
74%
Cruzeiro or CSA
71%
Draw or CSA
56%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
20%
CSA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
71%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
35%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
13%
CSA 1+ goals
59%
CSA 2+ goals
22%
CSA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
63%
CSA (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.35 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSA attack 0.88 + Cruzeiro defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
44%
level
29%
CSA scores more
26%

Cruzeiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
YuriCSACSA · M
8.2

Match Events

32'
A. Cabral← Lucas Ventura
41'
Claudinho↳ Matheus Pereira
45'
Thiago
46'
Marco Antônio← Rômulo
50'
Yuri↳ Gabriel
60'
Ariel Cabral
62'
Rafael Sóbis← Thiago
62'
Vitor Leque← Felipe Augusto
64'
Iury↳ Cristovam
65'
Giovanni← Adriano
69'
Reinaldo← Marco Túlio
77'
Silas← Iury
77'
Geovane← Yuri
78'
Thiago Rodrigues
79'
Matheus Pereira
83'
Éverton Silva← Kevyn
83'
Renato Cajá← Gabriel
85'
Rafael Sóbis
85'
Rafael Sóbis
85'
Rafael Sóbis
87'
Cristovam
90+2'
Raúl Cáceres

Possession

55%Cruzeiro

Shots

10Cruzeiro

Pass accuracy

52%Cruzeiro

Statistics

CruzeiroCSA
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots11
2Corners7
18Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots11
3On Target5
4Off Target3
3Blocked3
6Inside Box9
4Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
451Total Passes363
372Accurate Passes277
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls13
6Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Cruzeiro vs CSA

CSA beat Cruzeiro 2-1 in Serie B on September 26, 2021.

Goals: Claudinho (41'), Yuri (50'), Iury (64').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.