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CS Universitatea Craiova vs AEK Athens FC — UEFA Europa League 2018

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
8/8/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova28%
×Draw25%
AEK Athens FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.17
AEK Athens FC
1.58

AEK Athens FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.33
AEK Athens FC
1.50

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.67
AEK Athens FC
1.00

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
53%
CS Universitatea Craiova or AEK Athens FC
75%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
72%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
11%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
69%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
33%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
11%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
79%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
47%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
38%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.33 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

AEK Athens FC attack 1.50 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
28%
level
25%
AEK Athens FC scores more
47%

AEK Athens FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: CS Universitatea Craiova 0–2 AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC beat CS Universitatea Craiova 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.