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AEK Athens FC vs Universitatea Craiova — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
12/18/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6Allwyn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AEK Athens FC61%
×Draw22%
Universitatea Craiova17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Athens FC
1.89
Universitatea Craiova
0.89

AEK Athens FC creates 112% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

AEK Athens FC
2.33
Universitatea Craiova
0.78

allows per match

AEK Athens FC
1.00
Universitatea Craiova
1.44

finishing

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Athens FC ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AEK Athens FC or draw
83%
AEK Athens FC or Universitatea Craiova
78%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
39%

Winning margin

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
36%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
85%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
56%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
29%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
59%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
22%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
78%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Athens FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Athens FC attack 2.33 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Universitatea Craiova attack 0.78 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AEK Athens FC scores more
61%
level
22%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
17%

AEK Athens FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: AEK Athens FC 3–2 Universitatea Craiova

AEK Athens FC beat Universitatea Craiova 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 18, 2025.

The match was played at Allwyn Arena in Athens.