AEK Athens FC 1–1 CS Universitatea Craiova

AEK Athens FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CS Universitatea Craiova

8/15/2019

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundOlympiako Stadio Spyros Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AEK Athens FC30%

×Draw23%

CS Universitatea Craiova46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AEK Athens FCExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.77

AEK Athens FC

1.39

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.77

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.20

2.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

AEK Athens FC

1.17

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.20

allows per match

AEK Athens FC

2.33

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Athens FC ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AEK Athens FC or draw

54%

AEK Athens FC or CS Universitatea Craiova

77%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

70%

Winning margin

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+

13%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals

75%

AEK Athens FC 2+ goals

40%

AEK Athens FC 3+ goals

16%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

83%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

53%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)

40%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Athens FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Athens FC attack 1.17 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.20 + AEK Athens FC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AEK Athens FC scores more

30%

level

23%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

46%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff