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Cruzeiro vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
11/22/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 33Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Cruzeiro48%
×Draw28%
Vasco DA Gama24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.34
Vasco DA Gama
0.86

Cruzeiro creates 56% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
1.27
Vasco DA Gama
0.90

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.82
Vasco DA Gama
1.41

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more
Vasco DA Gama+0.17scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
76%
Cruzeiro or Vasco DA Gama
72%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
52%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
23%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
74%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
39%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
15%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
58%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
21%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
67%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 21 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.27 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.90 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
48%
level
28%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
24%

Cruzeiro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cruzeiro 2–2 Vasco DA Gama

Cruzeiro and Vasco DA Gama drew 2-2 in Serie A on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.