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Crotone vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
N. Pierini 89', 78'
A. De Francesco 12'
12/27/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crotone44%
×Draw27%
Spezia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.40
Spezia
1.07

Crotone creates 31% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 91 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.46
Spezia
1.13

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Spezia
1.34

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
71%
Crotone or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
56%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
21%
Spezia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
75%
Crotone 2+ goals
41%
Crotone 3+ goals
17%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
61%
Spezia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.46 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spezia attack 1.13 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crotone scores more
44%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
29%

Crotone at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. De Francesco↳ P. Bartolomei
46'
M. Firenze← B. Martella
57'
Luca Vignali
58'
N. Pierini← S. Bidaoui
63'
Roberto Crivello
64'
A. Nalini← S. Nwankwo
70'
Salvatore Molina
73'
A. Stoian← A. Barberis
73'
L. Mora← A. De Francesco
78'
N. Pierini↳ L. Vignali
81'
Vladimir Golemić
89'
S. Gudjohnsen← E. Gyasi
89'
N. Pierini↳ S. Gudjohnsen

Possession

55%Crotone

Shots

9Crotone

Statistics

CrotoneSpezia
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots12
6Corners3
17Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots12
4On Target5
5Off Target7
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Serie B: Crotone 0–3 Spezia

Spezia beat Crotone 3-0 in Serie B on December 27, 2018.

Goals: A. De Francesco (12'), N. Pierini (78', 89').

Crotone controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.