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Crewe vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
3/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Alexandra Stadium
Big match
40%
Crewe
model favours
40%23%36%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw23%
Crawley Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.67
Crawley Town
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
64%
Crewe or Crawley Town
77%
Draw or Crawley Town
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
21%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
81%
Crewe 2+ goals
50%
Crewe 3+ goals
23%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
79%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
46%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
53%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
23%
Crawley Town scores more
36%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crewe have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Crewe sit 11, Crawley Town 22 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Crawley Town
Balanced
50%Possession54%
70%Pass accuracy71%
11.4ShotsBiggest gap12.7
1.44xG1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweCrawley Town

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

7
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 44%
1–01–00–21–04–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Crawley Town

March 6, 2027: Crewe take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Crawley Town at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.