Crewe 1–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

R. Adebisi 61'

2/10/2024

League Two · Round 32Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Crewe50%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Crewe

1.56

Crawley Town

1.02

Crewe creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 29 away

1.40

creates per match

0.79

1.26

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Crewe

1.40

Crawley Town

0.79

allows per match

Crewe

1.26

Crawley Town

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

75%

Crewe or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

50%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

26%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

79%

Crewe 2+ goals

46%

Crewe 3+ goals

21%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

64%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

27%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

67%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.40 + Crawley Town defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Crawley Town attack 0.79 + Crewe defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crewe scores more

50%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

25%

Crewe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

L. Billington

Crewe · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

Aaron Rowe

13'

Adam Campbell

16'

Ryan Cooney

46'

L. Billington← R. Cooney

54'

Corey Addai

61'

R. Adebisi↳ L. Billington

69'

L. Leigh← M. Holíček

69'

C. Kirk← S. Tracey

70'

C. Baker-Richardson← E. Nevitt

70'

R. Darcy← A. Campbell

70'

J. Kelly← H. Forster

75'

A. Adeyemo← N. Tsaroulla

80'

J. Austerfield← A. Rowe

90+4'

Lewis Leigh

90'

Luke Offord

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweCrawley

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots8

7Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots8

1On Target2

6Off Target5

3Blocked1

10Inside Box3

0Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

358Total Passes339

246Accurate Passes224

69%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2