Crawley Town 2–0 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

L. Kelly 85'

D. Orsi 41'

5/19/2024

League Two · Promotion Play-offs - FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Crawley Town36%

×Draw27%

Crewe37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Crawley Town

1.23

Crewe

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

1.26

creates per match

1.28

1.26

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.26

Crewe

1.28

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.26

Crewe

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

63%

Crawley Town or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

64%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

15%

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

71%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

35%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

13%

Crewe 1+ goals

72%

Crewe 2+ goals

36%

Crewe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

49%

Crewe (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.26 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Crewe attack 1.28 + Crawley Town defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crawley Town scores more

36%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

37%

Crewe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Kelly

Crawley Town · M

8.9

Match Events

19'

Aaron Rowe

41'

D. Orsi↳ L. Kelly

52'

Christopher LongPenalty cancelled

55'

R. Darcy← A. Campbell

59'

Rio Adebisi

64'

C. Baker-Richardson← S. Tracey

65'

A. Adeyemo← K. Gordon

65'

J. Austerfield← C. Thomas

66'

Joel Tabiner

74'

C. Kirk← C. Long

74'

L. Leigh← J. Tabiner

81'

M. Holíček← L. Billington

85'

L. Kelly

90+3'

N. Tsaroulla← J. Kelly

90+3'

J. Roles← K. Lolos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyCrewe

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots8

6Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots8

7On Target3

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

460Total Passes261

368Accurate Passes161

80%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3