Crawley Town 2–4 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Crewe

R. Darcy 28'

K. Lolos 15'

E. Nevitt 90+4'

C. Baker-Richardson 75'

D. Conroy 56' (OG)

S. Tracey 20'

10/21/2023

League Two · Round 14Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Crawley Town34%

×Draw27%

Crewe39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Crawley Town

1.19

Crewe

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

1.20

creates per match

1.28

1.30

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.20

Crewe

1.28

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.30

Crewe

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

61%

Crawley Town or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

66%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

14%

Crewe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

70%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

33%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

12%

Crewe 1+ goals

72%

Crewe 2+ goals

37%

Crewe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

47%

Crewe (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.20 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Crewe attack 1.28 + Crawley Town defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more

34%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

39%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Baker-Richardson

Crewe · F

7.9

Match Events

2'

Dion Conroy

15'

K. Lolos↳ D. Orsi

20'

S. Tracey↳ J. White

28'

R. Darcy↳ K. Lolos

45+3'

Will Wright

54'

Courtney Baker-Richardson

56'

D. ConroyOwn goal

60'

K. Gordon← A. Henry

61'

M. Demetriou← J. White

66'

Klaidi Lolos

70'

E. Nevitt← C. Long

75'

C. Baker-Richardson↳ Z. Williams

82'

89'

89'

90+6'

90+6'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyCrewe

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots12

6Corners7

9Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target8

6Off Target1

3Blocked3

7Inside Box10

7Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

552Total Passes342

471Accurate Passes259

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides6