Crewe 3–2 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Carlisle

J. Lankester 90+8'

O. Bogle 90+3'

C. Long 32'

K. Harris 78'

J. Ellis 21'

1/1/2025

League Two · Round 24Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Crewe45%

×Draw26%

Carlisle29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Crewe

1.46

Carlisle

1.13

Crewe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 115 away

1.56

creates per match

1.07

1.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Crewe

1.56

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Crewe

1.18

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

71%

Crewe or Carlisle

74%

Draw or Carlisle

55%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

22%

Carlisle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

77%

Crewe 2+ goals

43%

Crewe 3+ goals

18%

Carlisle 1+ goals

68%

Carlisle 2+ goals

31%

Carlisle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

60%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crewe scores more

45%

level

26%

Carlisle scores more

29%

Crewe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Holíček

Crewe · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

21'

32'

35'

46'

J. Connolly← Z. Williams

53'

Harrison Neal

59'

J. Jones← J. Ellis

59'

K. Harris← C. Harper

67'

J. Lankester← S. Tracey

71'

C. Finney← R. Cooney

72'

O. Bogle← C. Long

78'

K. Harris↳ L. Armstrong

82'

T. Charters← D. Adu-Adjei

82'

T. Burey← D. Sadi

83'

J. Powell← J. Tabiner

84'

86'

90+2'

90+6'

90+3'

90+8'

J. Lankester↳ M. Holíček

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweCarlisle

Overview

43%Possession57%

18Total Shots13

7Corners8

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots13

8On Target6

4Off Target3

6Blocked4

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

272Total Passes371

160Accurate Passes256

59%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1