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Carlisle vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Carlisle
Carlisle
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Crewe
Crewe
C. Elliot 64'
H. Hope 59'
G. Jones 85' (OG)
C. Porter 78'
D. Powell 27'
N. Hunt 7'
10/12/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle40%
×Draw27%
Crewe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.32
Crewe
1.19

Carlisle creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 122 away

creates per match

Carlisle
1.26
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

Carlisle
1.21
Crewe
1.38

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
67%
Carlisle or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
60%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
18%
Crewe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
73%
Carlisle 2+ goals
38%
Carlisle 3+ goals
15%
Crewe 1+ goals
70%
Crewe 2+ goals
33%
Crewe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
54%
Crewe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Crewe attack 1.16 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlisle scores more
40%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
33%

Carlisle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. IredaleCarlisleCarlisle · D
7.4

Match Events

7'
N. Hunt
27'
D. Powell↳ T. Lowery
46'
J. Mellish← N. Knight-Percival
53'
S. Scougall← J. Bridge
59'
H. Hope↳ J. Iredale
64'
C. Elliot↳ J. Iredale
70'
J. Jones← P. Green
78'
C. Porter↳ J. Jones
80'
H. McKirdy← M. Sagaf
85'
G. JonesOwn goal
86'
Eddie Nolan
89'
O. Dale← D. Powell

Possession

41%Carlisle

Shots

12Carlisle

Pass accuracy

47%Carlisle

Statistics

CarlisleCrewe
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots9
1Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots9
4On Target5
7Off Target3
1Blocked1
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
381Total Passes537
276Accurate Passes437
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides6

League Two: Carlisle 2–4 Crewe

Crewe beat Carlisle 4-2 in League Two on October 12, 2019.

Goals: N. Hunt (7'), D. Powell (27'), H. Hope (59'), C. Elliot (64'), C. Porter (78'), G. Jones (85' o.g.).

Crewe controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.