Carlisle 1–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

D. Sadi 2'

J. Lankester 82' (pen)

11/30/2024

League Two · Round 18Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle40%

×Draw27%

Crewe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Carlisle

1.32

Crewe

1.19

Carlisle creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 122 away

1.26

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carlisle

1.26

Crewe

1.16

allows per match

Carlisle

1.21

Crewe

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

67%

Carlisle or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

60%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

18%

Crewe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

73%

Carlisle 2+ goals

38%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Crewe 1+ goals

70%

Crewe 2+ goals

33%

Crewe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

54%

Crewe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.26 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Crewe attack 1.16 + Carlisle defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carlisle scores more

40%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

33%

Carlisle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

D. Sadi

Carlisle · F

7.9

Match Events

2'

D. Sadi↳ A. Hayden

11'

James Connolly

12'

Lewis Billington

63'

A. Thibaut← M. Sanders

63'

J. Knight-Lebel← J. Connolly

63'

C. Finney← L. Billington

64'

Kadeem Harris

68'

D. McGeouch← T. Burey

69'

J. Jones← K. Harris

69'

H. Neal← C. Guy

72'

Jordan Jones

74'

G. Kelly← C. Harper

81'

Georgie Kelly

82'

J. LankesterPenalty

84'

O. Lunt← J. Lankester

89'

Harrison Neal

90+1'

J. Ellis← A. Hayden

90'

K. Breckin← M. Holíček

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleCrewe

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots8

0Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots8

2On Target3

1Off Target5

3Blocked0

4Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

378Total Passes399

287Accurate Passes316

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides6