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Crewe vs Bromley — League Two 2025

Crewe
Crewe
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Bromley
Bromley
J. Knight-Lebel 82'
J. Lankester 38'
O. Bogle 32', 28'
M. Cheek 36' (pen)
1/5/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Crewe37%
×Draw27%
Bromley36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.30
Bromley
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.40
Bromley
1.29

allows per match

Crewe
1.26
Bromley
1.21

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Bromley+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Bromley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
64%
Crewe or Bromley
73%
Draw or Bromley
63%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
17%
Bromley wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
73%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Bromley 1+ goals
72%
Bromley 2+ goals
36%
Bromley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
51%
Bromley (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.40 + Bromley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bromley attack 1.29 + Crewe defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crewe scores more
37%
level
27%
Bromley scores more
36%

Crewe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
O. BogleCreweCrewe · F
8.3

Match Events

18'
L. Billington← J. Connolly
28'
O. Bogle
32'
O. Bogle↳ J. Lankester
36'
M. CheekPenalty
38'
J. Lankester↳ L. Billington
46'
L. Amantchi← C. Reynolds
52'
Grant Smith
55'
Lewis Billington
58'
S. Tracey← J. Lankester
59'
J. Tabiner← M. Sanders
60'
C. Congreve← L. Dennis
68'
J. Passley← D. Imray
68'
O. Olomola← M. Cheek
74'
Ryan Cooney
75'
Kamarl Grant
78'
C. Long← O. Bogle
78'
O. Lunt← J. Powell
79'
Kamarl Grant
79'
Kamarl Grant
82'
Omar Sowunmi
82'
J. Knight-Lebel↳ L. Billington
83'
B. Webster← C. Whitely

Possession

55%Crewe

Shots

17Crewe

Pass accuracy

53%Crewe

Statistics

CreweBromley
Overview
55%Possession45%
17Total Shots10
2Corners7
7Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots10
8On Target3
2Off Target5
7Blocked2
13Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
354Total Passes277
245Accurate Passes165
69%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls9
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

League Two: Crewe 4–1 Bromley

Crewe beat Bromley 4-1 in League Two on January 5, 2025.

Goals: O. Bogle (28', 32'), M. Cheek (36' pen), J. Lankester (38'), J. Knight-Lebel (82').

Crewe controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.