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Bromley vs Crewe — League Two 2025

Bromley
Bromley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
L. Leigh 2'
C. Long 90+1'
M. Demetriou 83'
8/31/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bromley45%
×Draw26%
Crewe29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.47
Crewe
1.12

Bromley creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bromley
1.75
Crewe
1.28

allows per match

Bromley
0.96
Crewe
1.19

finishing

Bromley+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
71%
Bromley or Crewe
74%
Draw or Crewe
55%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
22%
Crewe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
77%
Bromley 2+ goals
43%
Bromley 3+ goals
18%
Crewe 1+ goals
67%
Crewe 2+ goals
31%
Crewe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
61%
Crewe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 1.75 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.47

Crewe attack 1.28 + Bromley defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bromley scores more
45%
level
26%
Crewe scores more
29%

Bromley at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. DemetriouCreweCrewe · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
L. Leigh↳ M. Cheek
45'
Shilow Tracey
56'
J. Tabiner← L. Billington
56'
J. Lankester← C. Thomas
61'
L. Dennis← C. Congreve
64'
C. Long← M. Holíček
74'
B. Thompson← L. Leigh
78'
Ben Thompson
81'
Callum Reynolds
82'
R. Cooney← M. Conway
82'
O. Bogle← S. Tracey
83'
O. Sowunmi← D. Imray
83'
M. Demetriou↳ J. Tabiner
90+2'
Max Sanders
90+1'
C. Long↳ J. Lankester

Possession

41%Bromley

Shots

10Bromley

Pass accuracy

44%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyCrewe
Overview
41%Possession59%
10Total Shots15
5Corners7
18Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots15
2On Target5
4Off Target7
4Blocked3
4Inside Box11
6Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
255Total Passes361
149Accurate Passes270
58%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

League Two: Bromley 1–2 Crewe

Crewe beat Bromley 2-1 in League Two on August 31, 2024.

Goals: L. Leigh (2'), M. Demetriou (83'), C. Long (90+1').

Crewe controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.