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Bromley vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
B. Thompson 70'
C. Whitely 31'
M. Demetriou 90'
A. Pond 54'
1/27/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bromley53%
×Draw23%
Crewe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.85
Crewe
1.18

Bromley creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.27
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Bromley
1.06
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Bromley-0.45scores less
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
76%
Bromley or Crewe
77%
Draw or Crewe
47%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
30%
Crewe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
84%
Bromley 2+ goals
55%
Bromley 3+ goals
28%
Crewe 1+ goals
69%
Crewe 2+ goals
33%
Crewe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
69%
Crewe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.06 · 11 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.27 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.85

Crewe attack 1.30 + Bromley defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bromley scores more
53%
level
23%
Crewe scores more
24%

Bromley at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
C. WhitelyBromleyBromley · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
Alfie Pond
31'
C. Whitely
54'
A. Pond↳ R. Hutchinson
55'
B. Ilunga← C. Whitely
56'
W. Hondermarck← J. Arthurs
58'
Ashley Charles
64'
B. Thompson← B. Krauhaus
65'
N. Kabamba← M. Cheek
70'
B. Thompson↳ W. Hondermarck
76'
Omar Sowunmi
76'
Josh March
81'
A. Thibaut← C. Agius
82'
C. Jenkinson← O. Sowunmi
87'
M. Demetriou← M. Holicek
90+6'
Max Sanders
90+7'
O. Lunt← T. O'Reilly
90'
M. Demetriou↳ L. Billington

Possession

31%Bromley

Shots

10Bromley

Pass accuracy

39%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyCrewe
Overview
31%Possession69%
10Total Shots16
4Corners3
11Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots16
5On Target4
2Off Target4
3Blocked8
7Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
31%Possession69%
250Total Passes558
122Accurate Passes430
49%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls6
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

League Two: Bromley 2–2 Crewe

Bromley and Crewe drew 2-2 in League Two on January 27, 2026.

Goals: C. Whitely (31'), A. Pond (54'), B. Thompson (70'), M. Demetriou (90').

Crewe controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.