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CRB vs Remo — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Remo
Remo
L. Segovia 62'
Mikael 10'
6/1/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 10Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CRB46%
×Draw27%
Remo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.39
Remo
0.99

CRB creates 40% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 38 away

creates per match

CRB
1.40
Remo
1.18

allows per match

CRB
0.81
Remo
1.37

finishing

CRB+0.00on par
Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Remo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CRB or draw
73%
CRB or Remo
73%
Draw or Remo
54%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
22%
Remo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
75%
CRB 2+ goals
40%
CRB 3+ goals
16%
Remo 1+ goals
63%
Remo 2+ goals
26%
Remo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
63%
Remo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Remo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.40 + Remo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Remo attack 1.18 + CRB defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CRB scores more
46%
level
27%
Remo scores more
27%

CRB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Matheus AlbinoCRBCRB · G
9.6

Match Events

10'
Mikael↳ Gege
44'
Danielzinho
46'
Ytalo← Felipe Vizeu
46'
Regis← Giovanni Pavani
59'
Daniel Lima← Mikael
62'
L. Segovia
68'
Lucas Kallyel← Danielzinho
68'
Hayner← Rafinha
76'
Gabryel Martins← Pedro Castro
77'
Dodo← Adailton
86'
Kadu Santos← Pedro Costa
89'
Fernando Henrique
90'
Vinicius Barata← Thiaguinho
90'
Gazao← Gege

Possession

43%CRB

Shots

15CRB

Pass accuracy

49%CRB

Statistics

CRBRemo
Overview
43%Possession57%
15Total Shots21
5Corners5
9Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots21
4On Target9
6Off Target9
5Blocked3
8Inside Box9
7Outside Box12
Passing
43%Possession57%
378Total Passes496
330Accurate Passes453
87%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
9Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Serie B: CRB 2–0 Remo

CRB beat Remo 2-0 in Serie B on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Mikael (10'), L. Segovia (62').

Remo controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.