CRB 0–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

CRB

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coritiba

Gustavo Coutinho 90' (pen)

7/11/2025

Serie B · Round 16Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

CRB46%

×Draw26%

Coritiba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRBExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

CRB

1.47

Coritiba

1.10

CRB creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

1.09

1.12

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

CRB

1.56

Coritiba

1.09

allows per match

CRB

1.12

Coritiba

1.37

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

CRB-0.02on par

Coritiba-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CRB or draw

72%

CRB or Coritiba

74%

Draw or Coritiba

54%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+

22%

Coritiba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals

77%

CRB 2+ goals

43%

CRB 3+ goals

18%

Coritiba 1+ goals

67%

Coritiba 2+ goals

30%

Coritiba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)

62%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.56 + Coritiba defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Coritiba attack 1.09 + CRB defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CRB scores more

46%

level

26%

Coritiba scores more

28%

CRB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Pedro Morisco

Coritiba · G

10.0

Match Events

-5'

Hayner

3'

Breno HerculanoGoal cancelled

12'

12'

36'

45+1'

62'

Vinicius Barata← Thiaguinho

62'

Crystopher Ribeiro← Gege

64'

Gustavo Coutinho← Dellatorre

65'

Nicolas Careca← Clayson

68'

Sebastian Gomez

69'

Vini Paulista← Wallisson

69'

Everaldo← Iury Castilho

70'

L. Segovia← Fabio Alemao

75'

Maicon

80'

C. de Pena← Josue

81'

Danielzinho

82'

Giovanni← Danielzinho

90+3'

Matheus Albino

90+3'

Nicolas Careca

90'

Gustavo CoutinhoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRBCoritiba

Overview

66%Possession34%

30Total Shots6

1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.14

10Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

30Total Shots6

10On Target3

10Off Target1

10Blocked2

16Inside Box3

14Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

570Total Passes295

520Accurate Passes236

91%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

13Fouls14

5Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

Serie B: CRB 0–1 Coritiba

Coritiba beat CRB 1-0 in Serie B on July 11, 2025.

Goals: Gustavo Coutinho (90' pen).

CRB controlled possession (66%) and registered 30 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.

CRB vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: CRB 0–1 Coritiba