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CRB vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Coritiba
Coritiba
Anselmo Ramon 86'
Saimon 53'
Anselmo Ramon 35' (OG)
7/13/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 15Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

CRB46%
×Draw26%
Coritiba28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.47
Coritiba
1.10

CRB creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

CRB
1.56
Coritiba
1.09

allows per match

CRB
1.12
Coritiba
1.37

finishing

CRB-0.02on par
Coritiba-0.65scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Coritiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CRB or draw
72%
CRB or Coritiba
74%
Draw or Coritiba
54%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
22%
Coritiba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
77%
CRB 2+ goals
43%
CRB 3+ goals
18%
Coritiba 1+ goals
67%
Coritiba 2+ goals
30%
Coritiba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
62%
Coritiba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.56 + Coritiba defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Coritiba attack 1.09 + CRB defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CRB scores more
46%
level
26%
Coritiba scores more
28%

CRB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
SaimonCRBCRB · D
7.9

Match Events

15'
Kleiton
23'
Jamerson
32'
Matheus Frizzo
35'
Anselmo RamonOwn goal
46'
Rodrigo Gelado← Jamerson
53'
Saimon↳ Kleiton
55'
Fábio Alemão
61'
Matheus Frizzo
61'
Matheus Frizzo
65'
João Pedro
66'
João Neto← João Pedro
66'
F. Labandeira← Kleiton
68'
Falcão
76'
Jorge← Ryan
76'
Caio César← Falcão
78'
Mike← Léo Pereira
80'
Jorge
82'
Matheus Bianqui← Vini Paulista
86'
Anselmo Ramon↳ Jorge
88'
Andrey← S. Gómez
88'
Figueiredo← Robson

Possession

56%CRB

Shots

9CRB

Pass accuracy

53%CRB

Statistics

CRBCoritiba
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots10
4Corners5
15Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots10
3On Target5
5Off Target3
1Blocked2
5Inside Box4
4Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
449Total Passes354
379Accurate Passes268
84%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls15
5Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: CRB vs Coritiba

CRB beat Coritiba 2-1 in Serie B on July 13, 2024.

Goals: Anselmo Ramon (35' o.g., 86'), Saimon (53').

CRB controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.