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Coritiba vs CRB — Serie B 2026

Coritiba
Coritiba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CRB
CRB
10/31/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 35Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coritiba46%
×Draw26%
CRB28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coritiba
1.44
CRB
1.06

Coritiba creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Coritiba
1.58
CRB
1.18

allows per match

Coritiba
0.94
CRB
1.30

finishing

Coritiba-0.36scores less
CRB+0.18scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

CRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw
72%
Coritiba or CRB
74%
Draw or CRB
54%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+
22%
CRB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals
76%
Coritiba 2+ goals
42%
Coritiba 3+ goals
18%
CRB 1+ goals
65%
CRB 2+ goals
29%
CRB 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)
62%
CRB (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

CRB away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.58 + CRB defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

CRB attack 1.18 + Coritiba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coritiba scores more
46%
level
26%
CRB scores more
28%

Coritiba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Pedro MoriscoCoritibaCoritiba · G
8.0

Match Events

27'
Lucas Ronier
28'
Dadá Belmonte
46'
Vini Paulista← Filipe Machado
46'
Clayson← Gustavo Coutinho
63'
Breno Herculano← Mikael
66'
Rodrigo Moledo
67'
Danielzinho
70'
C. de Pena← Wallisson
70'
Rodrigo Rodrigues← Iury Castilho
72'
Douglas Baggio← Thiaguinho
72'
Vinicius Barata← Dada Belmonte
82'
Everaldo← Josue
82'
Giovanni← Danielzinho

Possession

44%Coritiba

Shots

16Coritiba

Pass accuracy

50%Coritiba

Statistics

CoritibaCRB
Overview
44%Possession56%
16Total Shots19
0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.27
4Corners9
12Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots19
4On Target5
8Off Target9
4Blocked5
9Inside Box8
7Outside Box11
Passing
44%Possession56%
374Total Passes467
331Accurate Passes418
89%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Coritiba 0 – 0 CRB

Coritiba and CRB drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 31, 2025.

CRB controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Couto Pereira in Curitiba.