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Crawley Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
19:45
Port Vale
Port Vale
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18The Broadfield Stadium
39%
Crawley Town
model favours
39%28%33%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Crawley Town39%
×Draw28%
Port Vale33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.23
Port Vale
1.11

Crawley Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Port Vale
1.08

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.14
Port Vale
1.25

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
67%
Crawley Town or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
61%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
17%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
71%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
35%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
13%
Port Vale 1+ goals
67%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
54%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.21 + Port Vale defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Port Vale attack 1.08 + Crawley Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more
39%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
33%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Crawley Town and Port Vale have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town vs Port Vale — Match Preview

Crawley Town face Port Vale on December 1, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crawley Town host Port Vale at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.