Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Crawley Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
12/14/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 21The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Crawley Town39%
×Draw27%
Port Vale34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.28
Port Vale
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 160 home / 118 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.39
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.21
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
66%
Crawley Town or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
61%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
17%
Port Vale wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
72%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
37%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
70%
Port Vale 2+ goals
33%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
53%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more
39%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
34%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. BrownPort ValePort Vale · G
8.0

Match Events

68'
Josh Doherty
69'
M. Enigbokan-Bloomfield← R. Grego-Cox
75'
James Gibbons
84'
Panutche Camará← A. Nathaniel-George

Possession

44%Crawley

Shots

15Crawley

Pass accuracy

48%Crawley

Statistics

CrawleyPort
Overview
44%Possession56%
15Total Shots12
6Corners7
12Fouls7
Shots
15Total Shots12
5On Target4
6Off Target3
4Blocked5
7Inside Box6
8Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
351Total Passes434
203Accurate Passes268
58%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Crawley Town vs Port Vale

Crawley Town and Port Vale drew 0-0 in League Two on December 14, 2019.

Port Vale controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.