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Crawley Town vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
Preview
14:00
Crewe
Crewe
8/15/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 1The Broadfield Stadium
Big match
37%
Crawley Town
model favours
37%26%37%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Crawley Town37%
×Draw26%
Crewe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.36
Crewe
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.29
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.41
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
63%
Crawley Town or Crewe
74%
Draw or Crewe
63%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
17%
Crewe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
74%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
39%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
16%
Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
50%
Crewe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Crewe attack 1.30 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Crawley Town scores more
37%
level
26%
Crewe scores more
37%

Crawley Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crewe have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Crawley Town sit 22, Crewe 11 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crawley Town
Balanced
Crewe
Balanced
54%Possession50%
71%Pass accuracy70%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap11.4
1.41xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Crawley TownCrewe

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
7
Crewe
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 44%
0–10–12–00–12–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
DDDLL
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crawley Town face Crewe (League Two)

League Two returns with Crawley Town hosting Crewe. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Crawley Town host Crewe at The Broadfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.