Crawley Town 2–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

H. McKirdy 84' (pen), 68'

9/13/2025

League Two · Round 8The Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Crawley Town39%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Crawley Town

1.33

Cheltenham

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.29

creates per match

1.05

1.41

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.29

Cheltenham

1.05

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.41

Cheltenham

1.36

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Crawley Town-0.29scores less

Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

66%

Crawley Town or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

61%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

74%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

38%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

15%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

71%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

35%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

53%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.29 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Crawley Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crawley Town scores more

39%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

34%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Barker

Crawley Town · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

Kyle Scott

31'

Scot Bennett

62'

M. Anderson← G. Bajrami

62'

G. Holohan← R. Brown

62'

K. Dixon← K. Scott

63'

D. Power← L. Angol

68'

H. McKirdy↳ D. Pereira

71'

J. Martin← S. Sherring

72'

H. Pell← I. Hutchinson

82'

T. Taylor← L. Young

82'

J. Bickerstaff← G. Miller

84'

H. McKirdyPenalty

85'

S. Malone← D. Pereira

89'

L. Flower← K. Tshimanga

90+4'

Ade Adeyemo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrawleyCheltenham

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots11

7Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target3

8Off Target5

3Blocked3

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box8

Passing

58%Possession42%

388Total Passes272

302Accurate Passes192

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

League Two: Crawley Town 2–0 Cheltenham

Crawley Town beat Cheltenham 2-0 in League Two on September 13, 2025.

Goals: H. McKirdy (68', 84' pen).

Crawley Town controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Broadfield Stadium in Crawley.

Crawley Town vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Crawley Town 2–0 Cheltenham