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Cheltenham vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
CANC
00:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
4/13/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham36%
×Draw24%
Crawley Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.46
Crawley Town
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.13
Crawley Town
1.42

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.61
Crawley Town
1.79

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more
Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
61%
Cheltenham or Crawley Town
76%
Draw or Crawley Town
64%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
17%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
77%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
43%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
18%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
78%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
45%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cheltenham scores more
36%
level
24%
Crawley Town scores more
39%

Crawley Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cheltenham face Crawley Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Cheltenham hosting Crawley Town. Match starts April 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cheltenham host Crawley Town at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.