Cheltenham 3–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

R. Cundy 76'

J. Thomas 69'

H. Adelakun 62'

1/4/2026

League Two · Round 25Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cheltenham37%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.49

Cheltenham

1.46

Crawley Town

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.51

1.47

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Crawley Town

1.51

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.47

Crawley Town

1.80

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.14scores more

Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

62%

Cheltenham or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

17%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

77%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

43%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

18%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

77%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

44%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

49%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Cheltenham defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more

37%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

38%

Crawley Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Cundy

Cheltenham · D

8.3

Match Events

33'

Jonathan Russell

56'

H. Adelakun← G. Miller

62'

H. Adelakun↳ I. Hutchinson

69'

J. Thomas

73'

G. Harmon← J. Thomas

73'

L. Kinsella← I. Hutchinson

76'

R. Cundy↳ L. Young

77'

K. Tshimanga← T. Adeyemo

77'

J. Roles← T. Richards

77'

D. Pereira← R. Brown

80'

D. Power← A. Jude-Boyd

81'

T. Taylor← J. Bickerstaff

89'

Harry McKirdy

90+2'

Darragh Power

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamCrawley

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots9

8Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots9

7On Target2

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

11Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

285Total Passes402

198Accurate Passes309

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3