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Coventry vs Watford — Championship 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Watford
Watford
B. Sheaf 72'
M. Godden 58'
I. Louza 45+1'
João Pedro 6'
4/10/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 50+ matches

Coventry52%
×Draw25%
Watford23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.60
Watford
0.98

Coventry creates 63% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 58 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.83
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Coventry
0.96
Watford
1.38

finishing

Coventry+0.13scores more
Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
77%
Coventry or Watford
75%
Draw or Watford
48%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
27%
Watford wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
80%
Coventry 2+ goals
47%
Coventry 3+ goals
22%
Watford 1+ goals
62%
Watford 2+ goals
26%
Watford 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
69%
Watford (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Watford attack 1.01 + Coventry defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Coventry scores more
52%
level
25%
Watford scores more
23%

Coventry at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
I. LouzaWatfordWatford · M
8.0

Match Events

6'
João Pedro↳ R. Porteous
12'
Henrique Araújo← B. Assombalonga
14'
Kyle McFadzean
36'
Hamza Choudhury
45+3'
Luke McNally
45+3'
Josh Eccles
45+1'
I. Louza
54'
Ryan Andrews
58'
M. Godden↳ V. Gyökeres
59'
Leandro Bacuna
62'
Imrân Louza
70'
C. Cathcart← R. Andrews
72'
B. Sheaf↳ M. Godden
84'
K. Sema← H. Kamara
85'
Y. Asprilla← L. Bacuna
88'
Wesley Hoedt

Possession

49%Coventry

Shots

23Coventry

Pass accuracy

49%Coventry

Statistics

CoventryWatford
Overview
49%Possession51%
23Total Shots7
6Corners4
8Fouls14
Shots
23Total Shots7
6On Target4
14Off Target2
3Blocked1
12Inside Box5
11Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
415Total Passes431
313Accurate Passes337
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls14
3Yellow Cards5
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Coventry vs Watford

Coventry and Watford drew 2-2 in Championship on April 10, 2023.

Goals: João Pedro (6'), I. Louza (45+1'), M. Godden (58'), B. Sheaf (72').

Watford controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 23.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.