Coventry 4–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Utd

M. Godden 68'

C. O'Hare 59', 52'

V. Gyökeres 20'

S. Berge 16'

3/12/2022

Championship · Round 37The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Coventry46%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Utd28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.12

Coventry

1.50

Sheffield Utd

1.12

Coventry creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

0.97

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Sheffield Utd

1.19

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Coventry+0.09on par

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

72%

Coventry or Sheffield Utd

74%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

54%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

23%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

78%

Coventry 2+ goals

44%

Coventry 3+ goals

19%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

67%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

31%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

62%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 54 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coventry scores more

46%

level

26%

Sheffield Utd scores more

28%

Coventry at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. O'Hare

Coventry · F

8.9

Match Events

16'

S. Berge↳ C. Hourihane

20'

V. Gyökeres↳ M. Rose

52'

C. O'Hare

59'

C. O'Hare↳ V. Gyökeres

65'

O. McBurnie← O. Norwood

68'

M. Godden↳ C. O'Hare

69'

D. Hyam← K. McFadzean

73'

T. Kane← F. Dabo

78'

I. Ndiaye← B. Osborn

82'

M. Waghorn← M. Godden

90+2'

D. Jebbison← O. McBurnie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventrySheffield

Overview

48%Possession52%

27Total Shots12

5Corners7

13Fouls4

Shots

27Total Shots12

15On Target4

6Off Target4

6Blocked4

22Inside Box4

5Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

448Total Passes478

328Accurate Passes353

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves11

Discipline

13Fouls4

0Offsides2