Coventry 1–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

M. Godden 71'

Ó. Estupiñán 52'

3/11/2023

Championship · Round 36The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Coventry52%

×Draw24%

Hull City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.06

Coventry

1.67

Hull City

1.06

Coventry creates 58% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 57 away

1.82

creates per match

1.12

0.99

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Coventry

1.82

Hull City

1.12

allows per match

Coventry

0.99

Hull City

1.52

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Coventry+0.10scores more

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

76%

Coventry or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

48%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

28%

Hull City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

81%

Coventry 2+ goals

50%

Coventry 3+ goals

23%

Hull City 1+ goals

65%

Hull City 2+ goals

29%

Hull City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

68%

Hull City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.99 · 53 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.82 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hull City attack 1.12 + Coventry defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Coventry scores more

52%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

24%

Coventry at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Godden

Coventry · F

7.6

Match Events

22'

Ó. Estupiñán← B. Tetteh

46'

M. Ebiowei← X. Simons

52'

Ó. Estupiñán

60'

A. Sayyadmanesh← D. Pelkas

63'

S. Maguire← K. McFadzean

64'

B. Norton-Cuffy← R. Howley

71'

M. Godden↳ V. Gyökeres

74'

J. Burroughs← F. Dabo

74'

J. Wilson-Esbrand← J. Bidwell

81'

A. Traoré← J. Seri

81'

G. Docherty← O. Tufan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryHull

Overview

55%Possession45%

25Total Shots11

10Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots11

6On Target3

6Off Target3

13Blocked5

15Inside Box3

10Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

489Total Passes409

387Accurate Passes313

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Offsides5