Coventry 3–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Charlton

E. Simms 76', 44'

J. Eccles 40'

H. Knibbs 13'

11/29/2025

Championship · Round 18Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Coventry55%

×Draw24%

Charlton21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.93

Coventry

1.69

Charlton

0.93

Coventry creates 82% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 21 away

1.83

creates per match

0.89

0.97

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Coventry

1.83

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Charlton

1.55

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

79%

Coventry or Charlton

76%

Draw or Charlton

45%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

30%

Charlton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

82%

Coventry 2+ goals

50%

Coventry 3+ goals

24%

Charlton 1+ goals

61%

Charlton 2+ goals

24%

Charlton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

73%

Charlton (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

Charlton attack 0.89 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Coventry scores more

55%

level

24%

Charlton scores more

21%

Coventry at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Simms

Coventry · F

8.2

Match Events

13'

H. Knibbs

14'

Kayne Ramsay

30'

M. Leaburn← A. Bell

40'

J. Eccles↳ E. Mason-Clark

44'

E. Simms↳ V. Torp

46'

G. Docherty← H. Knibbs

65'

L. Woolfenden← J. Eccles

76'

E. Simms

78'

O. Hernandez← S. Carey

78'

I. Fullah← T. Olaofe

80'

J. Allen← J. Rudoni

87'

R. Apter← J. Bree

88'

K. Kesler-Hayden← M. van Ewijk

88'

J. Bidwell← J. Dasilva

88'

K. Andrews← E. Mason-Clark

89'

Bobby Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryCharlton

Overview

69%Possession31%

26Total Shots9

2.43Expected Goals (xG)0.66

6Corners3

3Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots9

8On Target4

9Off Target4

9Blocked1

14Inside Box7

12Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

586Total Passes261

511Accurate Passes196

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-0.33Goals Prevented-0.33

Discipline

3Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5