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Coventry vs Charlton — League One 2018

Coventry
Coventry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
G. Thomas 28'
P. Bauer 54'
4/14/2017League OneLeague One · Round 43Ricoh Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Coventry40%
×Draw29%
Charlton31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coventry
1.18
Charlton
1.02

Coventry creates 16% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 143 away

creates per match

Coventry
1.12
Charlton
1.22

allows per match

Coventry
0.83
Charlton
1.24

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coventry or draw
69%
Coventry or Charlton
71%
Draw or Charlton
60%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+
17%
Charlton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals
69%
Coventry 2+ goals
33%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%
Charlton 1+ goals
64%
Charlton 2+ goals
27%
Charlton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)
56%
Charlton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.12 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Charlton attack 1.22 + Coventry defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coventry scores more
40%
level
29%
Charlton scores more
31%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
G. Thomas↳ J. Turnbull
46'
K. Thomas← S. Beavon
54'
P. Bauer↳ R. Holmes
58'
J. Forster-Caskey← E. Konsa
60'
Andrew Crofts
71'
Jodi Jones
73'
K. Foley← J. Willis
76'
K. Reid← J. Jones
78'
J. Aribo← R. Holmes
82'
Ben Stevenson

Possession

46%Coventry

Shots

11Coventry

Statistics

CoventryCharlton
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots9
6Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots9
7On Target4
4Off Target4
0Blocked1
8Inside Box6
3Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

League One: Coventry 1–1 Charlton

Coventry and Charlton drew 1-1 in League One on April 14, 2017.

Goals: G. Thomas (28'), P. Bauer (54').

Charlton controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ricoh Arena in Coventry.