Charlton 1–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

J. Rankin-Costello 69'

E. Simms 3'

1/1/2026

Championship · Round 25The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton31%

×Draw26%

Coventry42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.41

Charlton

1.18

Coventry

1.41

Coventry creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

1.12

creates per match

1.49

1.32

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Coventry

1.49

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Coventry

1.24

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

58%

Charlton or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

69%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

13%

Coventry wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

69%

Charlton 2+ goals

33%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Coventry 1+ goals

76%

Coventry 2+ goals

41%

Coventry 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

43%

Coventry (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Coventry attack 1.49 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charlton scores more

31%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

42%

Coventry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Kaminski

Charlton · G

9.3

Match Events

3'

E. Simms↳ M. van Ewijk

15'

27'

42'

61'

62'

62'

M. Brau← K. Kesler-Hayden

69'

J. Rankin-Costello

73'

Harvey Knibbs

84'

S. Carey← J. Rankin-Costello

86'

E. Mason-Clark← H. Wright

88'

M. Gillesphey← C. Kelman

89'

T. Olaofe← T. Campbell

90+5'

James Bree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonCoventry

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots20

1.46Expected Goals (xG)1.55

9Corners3

10Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots20

3On Target7

6Off Target9

6Blocked4

10Inside Box16

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

330Total Passes400

246Accurate Passes309

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

0.97Goals Prevented0.97

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Charlton vs Coventry

Charlton and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on January 1, 2026.

Goals: E. Simms (3'), J. Rankin-Costello (69').

Coventry controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 15.

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Charlton vs Coventry