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Cornellà vs Atlético Baleares — League #877 2026

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
9/22/2024League #877League #877 · Group 3 - 4Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cornellà24%
×Draw34%
Atlético Baleares42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
0.67
Atlético Baleares
1.00

Atlético Baleares creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.00
Atlético Baleares
1.33

allows per match

Cornellà
0.67
Atlético Baleares
0.33

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
58%
Cornellà or Atlético Baleares
66%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
76%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
7%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
49%
Cornellà 2+ goals
15%
Cornellà 3+ goals
3%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
36%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.00 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Atlético Baleares attack 1.33 + Cornellà defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cornellà scores more
24%
level
34%
Atlético Baleares scores more
42%

Atlético Baleares at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #877: Cornellà 0–0 Atlético Baleares

Cornellà and Atlético Baleares drew 0-0 in League #877 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.