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Cornellà vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
9/18/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà48%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.25
Atlético Baleares
0.76

Cornellà creates 64% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
77%
Cornellà or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
52%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
71%
Cornellà 2+ goals
36%
Cornellà 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
53%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cornellà scores more
48%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
23%

Cornellà at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Atlético Baleares

Cornellà beat Atlético Baleares 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.