Atlético Baleares 2–3 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cornellà

Dioni 80'

Bilal Kandoussi 60'

Xesc Fullana 71'

Mamor Niang 50'

Nahuel Arroyo 16'

2/12/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Baleares49%

×Draw27%

Cornellà24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.94

Atlético Baleares

1.46

Cornellà

0.94

Atlético Baleares creates 55% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

0.84

1.04

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.26

Cornellà

0.84

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

1.04

Cornellà

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

76%

Atlético Baleares or Cornellà

73%

Draw or Cornellà

51%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

24%

Cornellà wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

18%

Cornellà 1+ goals

61%

Cornellà 2+ goals

24%

Cornellà 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

67%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.26 + Cornellà defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cornellà attack 0.84 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

49%

level

27%

Cornellà scores more

24%

Atlético Baleares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Nahuel Arroyo

43'

C. Blanco

46'

Bilal Kandoussi← K. Sibille

46'

Mamor Niang← Álex López

50'

Mamor Niang

56'

Laure← C. Martínez

57'

Cordero← Lucas de Vega

60'

Bilal Kandoussi

65'

Gil Muntadas← Nahuel Arroyo

71'

Xesc Fullana

74'

Kike López← Alfred Planas

74'

Rubén Enri← Raúl Tavares

77'

Miguelete Ramírez← Dani Nieto

77'

Toni Ramón← Tropi

80'

Dioni

88'

Ramón Folch← Xesc Fullana

Atlético

Cornellà

⚽

▼

Fullana

Asare

▼

Planas

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Onésimo

46'▲Bilal Kandoussi←▼K. Sibille

56'▲Laure←▼C. Martínez

57'▲Cordero←▼Lucas de Vega

77'▲Miguelete Ramírez←▼Dani Nieto

77'▲Toni Ramón←▼Tropi

Atlético Baleares substitutes

KandoussiLaureCorderoRamírezRamónAndrewsSánchezDols

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

46'▲Mamor Niang←▼Álex López

65'▲Gil Muntadas←▼Nahuel Arroyo

74'▲Kike López←▼Alfred Planas

74'▲Rubén Enri←▼Raúl Tavares

88'▲Ramón Folch←▼Xesc Fullana

Cornellà substitutes

NiangMuntadasLópezEnriFolchCanalesMartínez