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Cork City vs Derry City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cork City
Cork City
CANC
15:00
Derry City
Derry City
1/26/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cork City42%
×Draw20%
Derry City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City
2.18
Derry City
2.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cork City
1.86
Derry City
1.75

allows per match

Cork City
2.43
Derry City
2.50

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Cork City or draw
62%
Cork City or Derry City
80%
Draw or Derry City
58%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+
24%
Derry City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals
89%
Cork City 2+ goals
64%
Cork City 3+ goals
37%
Derry City 1+ goals
88%
Derry City 2+ goals
62%
Derry City 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)
52%
Derry City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.86 + Derry City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Derry City attack 1.75 + Cork City defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cork City scores more
42%
level
20%
Derry City scores more
38%

Cork City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cork City host Derry City

January 26, 2024: Cork City take on Derry City in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cork City host Derry City at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.