Coritiba 3–1 Amazonas: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Amazonas

Alef Manga 83'

Matheus Frizzo 61' (pen), 45+1' (pen)

Cauan Barros 74'

10/13/2024

Serie B · Round 31Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Coritiba54%

×Draw28%

Amazonas18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.67

Coritiba

1.38

Amazonas

0.67

Coritiba creates 106% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 38 away

1.34

creates per match

0.63

0.70

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Coritiba

1.34

Amazonas

0.63

allows per match

Coritiba

0.70

Amazonas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coritiba+0.00on par

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

82%

Coritiba or Amazonas

72%

Draw or Amazonas

46%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

27%

Amazonas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

75%

Coritiba 2+ goals

40%

Coritiba 3+ goals

16%

Amazonas 1+ goals

49%

Amazonas 2+ goals

15%

Amazonas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

75%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.70 · 74 matches

Amazonas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.34 + Amazonas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Amazonas attack 0.63 + Coritiba defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Coritiba scores more

54%

level

28%

Amazonas scores more

18%

Coritiba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Frizzo

Coritiba · M

8.7

Match Events

45+1'

Matheus FrizzoPenalty

46'

Erick Varão← J. Jiménez

46'

Dentinho← Bruno Lopes

59'

Júnior BrumadoPenalty confirmed

60'

Ezequiel

61'

Matheus FrizzoPenalty

65'

Igor Bolt← Róbson

65'

DG← Cocote

74'

Cauan Barros↳ D. Torres

80'

Robson← Júnior Brumado

80'

Alef Manga← Josué

83'

Sassá← Ezequiel

83'

Alef Manga↳ Vini Paulista

86'

Fabiano

90+2'

Bruno Melo

90+1'

Figueiredo← Matheus Frizzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaAmazonas

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots12

6Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots12

10On Target4

5Off Target4

5Blocked4

12Inside Box6

8Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

456Total Passes353

389Accurate Passes285

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0