Amazonas 1–0 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Amazonas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coritiba

Miranda 53'

6/26/2024

Serie B · Round 12Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Amazonas40%

×Draw29%

Coritiba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.00

Amazonas

1.19

Coritiba

1.00

Amazonas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Amazonas

1.18

Coritiba

1.00

allows per match

Amazonas

1.00

Coritiba

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par

Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

69%

Amazonas or Coritiba

71%

Draw or Coritiba

60%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

17%

Coritiba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

70%

Amazonas 2+ goals

33%

Amazonas 3+ goals

12%

Coritiba 1+ goals

63%

Coritiba 2+ goals

26%

Coritiba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

57%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.18 + Coritiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Amazonas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Amazonas scores more

40%

level

29%

Coritiba scores more

31%

Amazonas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Miranda

Amazonas · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

Jorge Roa Jiménez

47'

Lucas Ronier

53'

Miranda↳ Cauan Barros

59'

Wesley Pomba← Leandro Damião

59'

Robson← Vini Paulista

62'

Igor Bolt← Rafael Tavares

71'

Sassá← Jô

71'

Matheus Melo← Matheus Serafim

74'

Éberth← Matheus Frizzo

78'

Jhonny← Natanael

78'

Fransérgio← S. Gómez

85'

Miranda

85'

I. Alvariño← Ezequiel

85'

Pará← Cauan Barros

90'

Matheus Melo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmazonasCoritiba

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots9

2.10Expected Goals (xG)0.60

10Corners6

9Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked1

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

286Total Passes396

209Accurate Passes311

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0