Amazonas 1–2 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Amazonas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Coritiba

Luan Silva 50'

Iury Castilho 44'

S. Gomez 39'

11/23/2025

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Amazonas40%

×Draw29%

Coritiba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmazonasExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.00

Amazonas

1.19

Coritiba

1.00

Amazonas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Amazonas

1.18

Coritiba

1.00

allows per match

Amazonas

1.00

Coritiba

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amazonas+0.00on par

Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amazonas ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Amazonas or draw

69%

Amazonas or Coritiba

71%

Draw or Coritiba

60%

Winning margin

Amazonas wins by 2+

17%

Coritiba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amazonas 1+ goals

70%

Amazonas 2+ goals

33%

Amazonas 3+ goals

12%

Coritiba 1+ goals

63%

Coritiba 2+ goals

26%

Coritiba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amazonas (draw refunded)

57%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amazonas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amazonas attack 1.18 + Coritiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Amazonas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Amazonas scores more

40%

level

29%

Coritiba scores more

31%

Amazonas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amazonas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Ivan Alvarino

Amazonas · D

7.3

Match Events

3'

Diego Torres

7'

Lucas Ronier

39'

S. Gomez↳ Lucas Ronier

44'

Iury Castilho↳ Dellatorre

45+1'

Iury CastilhoGoal confirmed

46'

N. Castrillon← William Barbio

46'

Gabriel Domingos← Rafael Tavares

46'

Luan Silva← K. Ramirez

50'

Luan Silva↳ N. Castrillon

57'

Filipe Machado← S. Gomez

57'

Vini Paulista← Iury Castilho

62'

Fabiano

62'

Henrique Almeida

62'

Josué

65'

Kiko← J. Torres

65'

Geovane← Josue

66'

Felipe Guimaraes← Wallisson

81'

Nicolas Careca← Dellatorre

82'

Kiko

83'

Luan Silva

84'

Dener← D. Torres

85'

Larry Vásquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmazonasCoritiba

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots10

9Corners6

17Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots10

4On Target5

5Off Target3

8Blocked2

6Inside Box7

11Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

460Total Passes197

402Accurate Passes137

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

6Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1