Coquimbo Unido 0–0 Union La Calera: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union La Calera

11/2/2024

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coquimbo Unido60%

×Draw23%

Union La Calera17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.81

Coquimbo Unido

1.76

Union La Calera

0.81

Coquimbo Unido creates 117% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.79

creates per match

0.95

0.68

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.79

Union La Calera

0.95

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.68

Union La Calera

1.73

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.10scores more

Union La Calera+0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

83%

Coquimbo Unido or Union La Calera

77%

Draw or Union La Calera

40%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

34%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

83%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

52%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

26%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

56%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

19%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

78%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.79 + Union La Calera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.76

Union La Calera attack 0.95 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

60%

level

23%

Union La Calera scores more

17%

Coquimbo Unido at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Camargo

Coquimbo Unido · M

7.3

Match Events

32'

36'

37'

39'

46'

B. Chandía← M. Mundaca

51'

Dylan Glaby

57'

Agustín Álvarez

59'

M. Muñoz← W. Ponce

60'

J. Henríquez← A. Camargo

67'

Alejandro AzócarGoal cancelled

69'

E. Valencia← P. Parra

69'

E. Parnisari← R. Huerta

74'

S. Cabrera← J. Cornejo

80'

A. Cáceres← A. Henríquez

80'

A. Encinas← A. Álvarez

86'

Alejandro Azócar

87'

J. Bauman← S. Galani

90+7'

Jorge Henríquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoquimboUnion

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots14

8Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots14

0On Target3

5Off Target8

2Blocked3

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

359Total Passes252

242Accurate Passes126

67%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 0–0 Union La Calera

Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera drew 0-0 in Primera División on November 2, 2024.

Coquimbo Unido controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.

Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 0–0 Union La Calera